Roundball Thoughts

Thank you for Armon Bassett.

Signed,
Ohio University

Here are my picks for the NCAA Tournament, beginning Thursday:

MIDWEST REGION

ROUND 1
1 Kansas over 16 Lehigh
9 Northern Iowa over 8 UNLV
5 Michigan St. over 12 New Mexico St.
4 Maryland over 13 Houston
11 San Diego St over 6 Tennessee
3 Georgetown over 14 Ohio
7 Oklahoma St over 10 Georgia Tech
2 Ohio St. over 15 UC Santa Barbara

ROUND 2
1 Kansas over 9 Northern Iora
4 Maryland over 5 Michigan St.
3 Georgetown over 11 San Diego St.
2 Ohio St. over 7 Oklahoma St.

SWEET 16
1 Kansas over 4 Maryland
2 Ohio St. over 3. Georgetown

ELITE EIGHT
1 Kansas over 2 Ohio St.

WEST REGION

ROUND 1
1 Syracuse over 16 Vermont
8 Gonzaga over 9 Florida St.
12 UTEP over 5 Butler
13 Murray St. over 4 Vanderbilt
6 Xavier over 11 Minnesota
3 Pittsburgh over 14 Oakland
7 BYU over 10 Florida
2 Kansas St. over 15 North Texas

ROUND 2
1 Syracuse over 8 Gonzaga
13 Murray St. over 12 UTEP
6 Xavier over 3 Pittsburgh
2 Kansas St over 7 BYU

SWEET 16
1 Syracuse over 13 Murray St
2 Kansas St over 6 Xavier

ELITE EIGHT
1 Syracuse over 2 Kansas St

EAST REGION

ROUND 1
1 Kentucky over 16 ETSU
8 Texas over 9 Wake Forest
5 Temple over 12 Cornell
4 Wisconsin over 13 Wofford
6 Marquette over 11 Washington
3 New Mexico over 14 Montana
10 Missouri over 7 Clemson
2 West Virginia over 15 Morgan St

ROUND 2
1 Kentucky over 8 Texas
5 Temple over 4 Washington
3 New Mexico over 6 Marquette
2 West Virginia over 10 Missouri

SWEET 16
5 Temple over 1 Kentucky
2 West Virginia over 3 New Mexico

ELITE EIGHT
2 West Virginia over 5 Temple

SOUTH REGION

ROUND 1
1 Duke over 16 Arkansas PB
8 California over 9 Louisville
5 Texas A&M over 12 Utah St
13 Siena over 4 Purdue
6 Notre Dame over 11 Old Dominion
3 Baylor over 14 Sam Houston St
7 Richmond over 10 St Mary’s
2 Villanova over 15 Robert Morris

ROUND 2
1 Duke over 8 California
13 Siena over 5 Texas A&M
3 Baylor over 6 Notre Dame
7 Richmond over 2 Villanova

SWEET 16
1 Duke over 13 Siena
3 Baylor over 7 Richmond

ELITE EIGHT
3 Baylor over 1 Duke

FINAL FOUR

1 Kansas over 1 Syracuse
2 West Virginia over 3 Baylor

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

WEST VIRGINIA over Kansas

Everyone wants to pick the biggest upsets in the Tournament, but it can be hard to figure out who the Cinderellas are. You have to try to figure out which higher seeds are susceptible to losing, and which lower seeds look to have the talent to pull off an upset. This can be a tough combination to find. However, there are some games in the 2010 NCAA Tournament that seem to fit the bill.

In the Midwest region, San Diego St. looks like a good choice to pull off an upset. They are a very athletic team, and they are battle tested after winning the Mountain West Conference tournament. Billy White is one of the most efficient scorers in the nation, and the Aztecs have a great frontline. On the flipside, Tennessee has been very up and down all season long. While they have the potential to beat any team, they have not been playing very well of late.

In the West region it looks like both the 12 and 13 seed both have a shot to pull off an upset. UTEP seems to match up pretty well with Butler. Butler is thin up front, and UTEP has some very strong players down there, especially Derrick Caracter. He has the potential to give the Bulldogs fits. Meanwhile, Murray St won 30 games this year, and they are playing very good basketball. While Vanderbilt has talent, I like Murray St. to pull off a couple of upsets and win up in the Sweet 16.

In the East, Cornell is a very good 12 seed, but they got a very tough draw. Temple is a very good basketball team, and will be a tough matcup for the Ivy League champions. The 11 seed Washington is playing very well after winning the Pac-10, and they could give Marquette a very difficult first round matchup. With Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas, the Huskies have the talent to pull off the first round upset.

In the South region, Siena looks like a surefire pick to upset the 4th seeded Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue is without its top player, and Siena has the experience, as they have won games in the first round the past two seasons. I like them to take out Purdue in the first round of the Tourney. Elsewhere, Old Dominion and Utah State both have the talent to pull off first round upsets, though I don’t think it is going to happen.

These are just some of the potential first round upsets in the NCAA Tournament this year. Go with your gut and pick what you think is going to happen. Good luck!

Finally it is on to the South Region…

Very interesting 5/12 matchup… I’m not enamored by either team, but I think the Aggies are a little tougher. They are great defensively, and have shown that they can play with the top teams in the country. Utah St. is talented, but they haven’t really played anyone. I’ll take the Aggies here, and they could eventually have a chance to beat Duke if it gets to that point.

This is a very strange 4/13 matchup, because Siena might actually be favored to win. They’ve won in the first round in the last two Tournaments, and they look poised to win again. They have a very veteran team, and without Robbie Hummel I don’t think Purdue can match up to them. I like Siena to win and have a great chance to advance to the Sweet 16.

On the bottom of the bracket, I like Baylor a lot. Tweety Carter is a very good PG, LaceDarius Dunn can put a lot of points on the board, and Ekpe Udoh is a dominant force down in the middle defensively. He is a walking triple-double in points, rebounds, and blocks. With Villanova the weakest 2 seed in the Tournament, I like Baylor to advance to the Elite Eight. Once there, I think they have a great chance to beat Duke with their athleticism.

Richmond and St. Mary’s is a 7/10 matchup that features two great mid-major teams that I like a lot. Richmond has some of the best guard play in the entire tournament, and the Gaels have an imposing big man in Omar Samhan. Either team is capable of knocking off Villanova, and potentially whoever they would play in the Sweet 16. I like Richmond to win two games.

At the end of the day, I will take Baylor to advance to the Final Four.

Next it is time to move onto the East Region, where Kentucky hails as the 1 seed.

A lot of people are talking about the Texas/Wake Forest game, but in my mind neither team has any chance in round 2. Both teams have a lot of talent, but neither team has played well at all recently. I predict a thrashing at the hands of Kentucky in round 2 for whoever wins the game (I’m picking Texas).

Temple and Cornell, I think, is the best first round matchup in the entire tournament. I think whoever wins that game is capable of making a run to the Elite Eight, they are both that good. I think both teams got underseeded. Temple won a very good A-10 conference, and Cornell was a very good team all season long. However, I do like Temple to win this game, and the next one, and then shock Kentucky.

Marquette and Washington is one of the toughest games of the first round to pick, I think. Both have very good guard play, both have a great senior wing/post, and both can get up and down the court. I will take Marquette because I think they are more experienced, and they have been better in close games this year. I think whoever wins will go down to New Mexico though, a team that I think is very good.

West Virginia, though, is the team I love. Much like Evan Turner, Da’Sean Butler is a guy that you just know is going to make plays at the end of the game when they need them to be made. There are not a lot of guys that you have that type of confidence in, but with 6 game-winners this season (including the 2 in the Big East Tournament), Butler is just the guy that both teams KNOW is going to make the play at the end of the game.

And that is why I like West Virginia to win this region.

Next it is time to move onto the West region. Some thoughts…

Gonzaga and Florida St is a very intriguing 8/9 matchup. The Seminoles are near the top in the country in defensive FG%, and Gonzaga is one of the most efficient offensive teams. Ultimately, I like the Zags because they have better guard play. Guard play is huge in the Tournament, and Florida St. is just not very strong there. It will be a very intriguing game… I have to think that Syracuse is hoping for a Florida St. victory, but I like the Zags.

This region also features the best 5/12 and 4/13 matchups… Butler is a great team, but I like UTEP’s size to wreak havoc with the Bulldogs. Butler is very thin up front, and their best post man (Matt Howard) is prone to getting into foul trouble… UTEP has some beasts up front, including Derrick Caracter, and I think that will propel them to a 5/12 upset here.

Meanwhile Murray St. is a team that I love. They won 30 games this year, and I think there is something to be said about simply knowing how to win games. They have a tough draw because Vanderbilt is very talented. They have good guards (Beal, Tinsley, and Jenkins) and Ogilvy is a very skilled big man. The Commodores have been very solid all year long. However, I do like Murray St. to get by and pull off the upset.

On the bottom of the bracket I like the Xavier/Minnesota winner to beat Pittsburgh in round 2, who I think was overseeded. Sorry, I know the Panthers have some very impressive wins, but I just don’t see them making a deep run. Lower down, look out for BYU, they have the offensive firepower to make a run and get to the Elite Eight… I don’t think it will happen, but they have that type of talent, especially with Jimmer Fredette.

At the end of the day, I like Syracuse to get out of this region.

With the brackets finally out, it is time to take a look at each region… first off, some things that strike me about the Midwest region.

Everyone is saying that this is the toughest region, and it’s hard to argue with that. But, since everyone else has already covered this ad nauseum, I won’t harp on it.

Michigan St. seems to be a team that everyone points to as evidence that this is an extremely tough region. On the one hand, it’s easy to see why… Tom Izzo is a great coach with a great Tournament track record, and they did make the Tournament last season. However, they are simply not that good right now. They have lots of personnel issues (with injuries and suspensions), and they simply have not been playing very good basketball. The Spartans haven’t beaten a good team since late January… I like them to sneak by New Mexico St. (though it certainly wouldn’t shock me if the Aggies won), but I don’t see them getting to the Sweet 16.

I like San Diego St as a double digit seed to advance to round 2. They were very impressive in the MWC Tournament, and they have good athleticism. Tennessee is not playing very good basketball right now, and they seem ripe for an upset. When they are on they have shown they can beat anyone in the country, but I don’t like them to beat the Aztecs.

Take me off the Georgetown bandwagon… they are a very good team, and their path seems very clear to the Sweet 16, but I’ll take Ohio St. over them to get to the Elite Eight. Just something about Georgetown that I can’t buy… I’m not sold on John Thompson right now.

Everyone is automatically penciling in Kansas for the Final Four (and as the National Champion), but I’m not so sure that Ohio St. can’t beat them… Evan Turner is that good. I think they can hang with anyone because of him. In the NCAA Tournament you need someone that will go and get you a score at the end of the game when you need one, and Evan Turner is that guy.

I still like Kansas to get out of this region, but it should be very exciting!

Evan Turner showed once again that he is the best player in the nation, helping lead the Buckeyes into the Big Ten title game with a victory over Illinois. After hitting the game-winning half court shot against Michigan on Friday, he put on another stellar performance.

Turner finished with 31 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists (and 10 turnovers). He was dynamic at the end of the 2nd half and at the end of the first overtime, hitting plenty more big shots to help send the game to the first and second OT. He was 10-18 from the field, 1-3 from downtown, and 10-12 from the line.

He has great body control and can handle the ball very well. At 6′7” he can see over the defense, which allows him to make good decisions with the ball. He is also great at getting to the rim and finishing with either hand. He likes to drive to the baseline, and has the ability to use the rim to his advantage in shielding off defenders. He uses his shoulder to get by the on the ball defender, and then just uses his great body control to get to the hoop and finish.

He led the Big Ten in rebounds, and he is great at going up and getting the ball. He has great instincts and is very quick to the ball. He doesn’t wait for it to come to him, but he goes up and get it at his highest point.

Even though he leads the Big Ten in scoring, that doesn’t mean he is selfish with the ball. He did finish 2nd in assists. He draws lots of attention, and then uses that to get easy baskets for his teammates. Once again, his height helps there to find the open players.

He is also very solid defensively, using his long arms to be very disruptive. He is great as the top man on a 1-2-2 full court press. He has great stamina, shown by him playing tons of minutes and playing 94 feet on both ends of the court. For all of these reasons, it seems clear to me that Evan Turner is the best player in college basketball and should be the National Player of the Year.

Lots and lots of games on Friday night, with conference tournaments all around going on… some thoughts from the games.

- Georgetown just always gets good looks, they move so well without the ball. They are also very good passers, and their center, Greg Monroe, is the best passer on the team. They will obviously be a very tough out come Tournament time.

- Georgia Tech did everything they could to throw the game against Maryland away in the second half, but they hang on for a 5 point win. That will officially get them off of the bubble and into the NCAA Tournament.

- Dayton looked like they were going to inject some life in their Tournament hopes, as they built up a nice lead over Xavier. But the Musketeers show they are still an A-10 power, as they advanced past Dayton with a comeback win. If Richmond beats Massachussetts it will be a very competitive end to the A-10 Tournament, with Temple, Xavier, Rhode Island, and Richmond.

- Kansas definitely got a scare from Texas A&M, but their superior talent took over in the 2nd half.

- Underrated exciting conference tournament of the night: Mountain West Conference. All eyes are on the Big conferences, but this features some very good teams. San Diego State is playing for their tournament hopes against New Mexico in what has been a highly entertaining first half. The nightcap will feature BYU and Jimmer Fredette, fresh off of his 45 point effort last night.

- Florida falls up short against Mississippi State in a game that will definitely hurt their Tourney hopes. They are likely still in, but that won’t help their seeding any. For Mississippi State, one more win in the SEC Tournament and they might have an argument for an at-large berth.

- Just heard a stat that New Mexico is 7-0 against top 25 teams… wow! That Steve Alford guy can coach a little bit, huh?

- New Mexico leads San Diego St. 39-38 at the half… most entertaining game I’ve seen so far tonight. Two teams that are just getting after it, and both could be capable of doing some damage in the Tournament (if the Aztecs are able to make it in).

- You’re killing me FSN by showing the end of a hockey game instead of the UCLA game…. go Bruins!!

- Darington Hobson is quickly becoming one of my favorite players to watch… not hard to see why he was the MWC Player of the Year. He is very athletically gifted, averaging over 9 boards a game. He has a good handle and is a good passer as well. Even though he is shooting poorly right now, he is still in control of this game and having a big impact. 50-50 midway through the 2nd half.

- Yesterday was a very bad day for bubble teams, but Friday has been very good for them. Illinois got a huge win, Rhode Island got a nice win, Georgia Tech punched their ticket, and Minnesota leads in the 2nd half against Michigan St, though there is still plenty of time left in the game there.

- The 2nd half was not kind for the Bruins… Cal’s better talent simply dominated the game. They seemed to be able to get any shot they wanted in the second half, turning a competitive game into a game that was not all that close.

- In an extremely entertaining game from start to finish San Diego State appears to have punched their ticket to the Big Dance with a 72-69 victory over a top 10 team in New Mexico. Billy White was especially excellent for the Aztecs, with 28 very efficient points.

- After a pretty boring start to the 2nd half, the Notre Dame-West Virginia game has definitely picked up. The Mountaineers lead a low-scoring affair by 3 points with about 3 minutes to play.

- Minnesota hangs on to take out the Spartans in OT… once again, this has been a great day for the bubble teams.

- West Virginia hangs on for a 53-51  victory over Notre Dame… the Irish got the ball with about 10 seconds left to go to the length of the court, and Tory Jackson decided to take up a pull-up three with 5 seconds left… not sure I agree with that decision, I thought they could have gone for a better shot, but it was a pretty clear look. At the end of the day we will have West Virginia taking on Georgetown for the Big East Championship on Saturday night.

For most people, the best part about March Madness are all of the bracket busters, and those Mid-Major teams that have a chance to pull off a few upsets and win some games in the NCAA Tournament. As usual, there are a few teams that have that type of potential this season.

One is St. Mary’s, who will be brimming with confidence after winning the West Coast Conference. Their best player is Omar Samhan, who is one of the best post players out West. He is a potential 20-10 guy every night, and draws plenty of attention down in the low post. If he gets a lot of coverage, he can kick it out to the Gaels shooters, which are lethal. Guys like Matthew Delladova and Mickey McConnell can hurt you from anywhere on the court.

Another potential bracket buster is Utah State, which has become a threat year in and year out from the WAC. They finished 14-2 in the conference, winning the regular season title with ease. They have had some Tourney experience over the past few years, so they will not be afraid of the big lights.

Another team that is no stranger to those that follow the Tournament is Siena. They won the MAAC and will be looking for a Tournament win for the third straight year. They faced a stiff test in the MAAC title game from Fairfield, but they survived. They will be a tough out with guys like Edwin Ubiles, Ronald Moore, Ryan Rossiter, and Alex Franklin. They are a team that nobody is going to want to play come Tourney time.

Then there is Murray State, a 30 win team out of the Ohio Valley Conference, where they won both the regular season and conference tournament title. They are a very balanced team that does not rely on any one guy too much, which makes them very difficult to defend. With 30 victories, they will be supremely confident in their ability to win.

Finally there is Wofford, winners of the Southern Conference (which you have heard of because of Davidson, which made an Elite Eight run a couple of seasons ago). They played Michigan State and Pittsburgh competitive this season, so they will not be intimidated by the major conference teams.

All of these teams are capable of breaking some brackets come Tourney time, and should be looked at for a potential first round low-seeded upset if they get the right matchup.